ISSUE 02: Evicted by Nature
→ Towns around the world are being evicted by unfavourable natural circumstances (often human induced)
→ Increase in climate refugees and climate migrants
→ What if there were funerals for cities?
Whether it be because of rising sea levels, an increase threat of forest fires, or even draught, we’re seeing more towns and neighborhoods being forced to pack up and head to safer grounds. With the climate crisis only projected to get worse, what might a future for climate migrants look like? How will we remember the cities we’re forced to vacate? And perhaps more importantly, how might we ensure our growing population continues to find enough safe places to call home?
A
What Was
Having to pack up and leave your home is by no means anything new. Throughout human history we’ve had to abandon our settlements due to war, famine, economic collapse, and various other human and non-human causes. Even being forced to leave due to climate concerns isn’t anything new. What is new is that we’re seeing these types of ‘evictions’ become more frequent.
One example of a town being abandoned due to (human induced) climate change stems from Kantubek. Kantubek was a small coastal fishing town that was part of the former Soviet Republic. It was located on the coast of the Aral Sea, once the fourth largest lake in the world and home to over 1,100 islands. Now all that’s left of Kantubek is a ghost town with rusted out shells of boats lying in the middle of a sandy desert.
The story of the Aral Sea is one that highlights humanity’s greedy consumption of natural resources. Starting in 1960, it began to shrink at a staggering rate because Soviet irrigation projects diverted the rivers that fed the Aral sea in order to grow crops like cotton. Without a source to replenish it, the huge lake began to evaporate and now less than 10% of the Aral Sea remains. Gradually, town thats subsisted on the Aral Sea were forced to move away.
Examples of communities having to abandon their homes are numerous throughout history. What we can gain from looking at these historical examples is that humanity is adaptable. Though a tragedy in the moment, we learn to cope with the forced change and make the most of our new situation.
B
In more immediate history we have places like the Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, USA which is being reclaimed by the sea. Already the inhabitants have lost over 98% of their land. In California, residents are forced to abandon their property amidst approaching wildfires while on the opposite side of the States, the community of Shishmaref, Alaska (pop. 600) is also having to relocate because of shifting coastlines. Some are projecting that by the end of the century there will be 13 million climate refugees in the United States alone. That’s no small number.
C
As traumatic as it is for communities to have to leave their ancestral homes, in a strange twist it also affords the opportunity to rebuild their communities from scratch, using new technologies (like solar energy and water recycling), new urban plans, new architectural styles, and better construction practices. This was the case for the small community of Vunidogoloa in Fiji. The community packed everything up (even their cemetery) and was relocated in 2014. Now their houses are powered by solar panels and they have enough structures to house each couple - the previous conditions had as many as three families living under a single roof.
However, in some cases, it’s projected that cities too big to be rebuilt will have to be evacuated, putting into question where these citizens will opt to relocate. Existing cities make good bets, yet whether they will have the capacity to accommodate an influx of climate refugees remains to be seen. It’s certainly an issue we should be thinking about and planning for right now.
One of the biggest threats posed by climate change are the rising sea levels affecting coastal cities. Conservative estimates place the rise in sea levels between 1.7 and 3.2 feet (in the next 80 or so years, 2100). And in just 30 years (by 2050), up to 800 million people could be living in one of 570 climate affected coastal cities. That’s happening fast. Depending on your age, that’s within your lifetime.
Meanwhile, in South Korea the Bjarke Ingels Group is designing the world’s first prototype floating city that will be home to 12,000 people with construction expected to begin in 2023. It is designed as a series of interconnected platforms that can rise with the sea levels. Floating urban farms, living quarters and working quarters will all be included in the design. Other examples of floating buildings and floating cities are being explored around the world including a floating community in the Maldives and a floating office in the Netherlands.
Other types of construction projects are underway to protect vulnerable coastline. Two numerous to list, some examples include New York City’s projects to protect its 520 miles of coastline which includes boardwalks and flood walls, and in Jakarta they’re building a giant sea wall as part of their Great Garuda dam project. They are also relocating vulnerable citizens from riverbanks and reservoirs.
D
What If
Now, what might happen if rising sea levels, increased fire risk and other climate-related disasters continue to afflict our urban settlements? Let’s take five minutes to imagine repercussions of this trend.
‘Safe’ city migrations
Cities with relatively low environmental risk scores (low risk of flooding, no earthquakes, no cyclones, no volcanoes) will likely see a boom in population. These are cities that are currently viewed as less desirable but with climate change, will become more attractive as populations chase stable footholds. Think of places like Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. You may not have heard of it, but it’s a relatively safe city in terms of natural disasters as it’s not near any large body of water, it isn’t on a fault line, or near any forests. You’ll just have to make do with long winters. Maybe that’s why in the series Altered Carbon, the only cloning facility left is located in Edmonton, Canada. Either way, climate resilient settlements will quickly grow as citizens are forced to relocate due to natural disasters.
Digital twins
As natural disasters besiege a city, large scale digital documentation efforts will likely take place in an attempt to memorialize the city before it is destroyed, abandoned, or ravaged by climate change. This will allow people to visit the cities of 202X through digital means as the contemporary city would largely have fallen from glory. For those who have read Cloud Cuckoo Land, this is like the Atlas in Konstance’s library. In many ways, Google Earth is already doing this for us, allowing us to visit past versions of cities. Essentially, you have to imagine being able to explore a video-game like environment but… this time it’s all based off of a once-was reality.
Mega-engineering projects
What about physical interventions to save our cities. Perhaps some desperate cities would try outsmarting nature by raising itself up on stilts or building a large retainer wall. Perhaps a big geodesic dome a la Bucky Fuller to protect it from damaging winds? Massive shoring walls to protect against the ocean? If we look to history, we’re sure there’ll be at least one or two memorable (failed) follies of engineering to try and save our cities from inevitable destruction...
E
So What
With these three simple future speculations, what type of insights can we pull from it? This is where we gain our foresight, by using our critical muscles to tease out what’s good, bad, and unforeseen (or should be thought about some more).
Positives
Funerals for cities
A new type of memorial may be created for cities/communities that will need to be evacuated and abandoned due to climate change. Saying goodbye to the place you love would become celebrations seen worldwide.
Re-wilding
Abandoned and submerged cities may become new fishing hot spots as wildlife populate the buildings like a makeshift coral-reef. Nature will reclaim abandoned structures which will lead to new habitable space for fauna and flora.
Digital twins
A last ditch memorialization attempt may be made for communities. This would include creating a virtual, digital twin of a city so that citizens may visit their abandoned community as an act of mourning and remembrance. (It may also serve digital tourists)
Negatives
Climate Squatters
There will likely be the disadvantaged, the adventurous, and the free-spirited who take home in the abandoned cities, developing their own types of rogue communities. These post-apocalyptic settlements may grow in number as the cost of living grows in neighbouring cities.
Climate Victims
Not all urban settlement abandonments are peaceful. Some are violent and happen quickly. In any case, we are likely to see an increase in climate casualties as cities are destroyed by nature.
Other considerations
Replica Towns
Those unable to give up on their towns may choose to recreate their city elsewhere. Another Big Ben, further inland?
What Once Was Tourism
A new type of tourism might emerge: visiting “what-once-was” tourism. Ruins of modern towns and cities that have been abandoned being visited either in person as a sort of dystopian tourism OR virtually, as digital ghost towns.
Climate Safety Rating System
There may be a need to develop a climate safety rating system for towns and cities, thereby letting residents know of the likelihood for climate-related evacuations. In NYC there are ‘special coastal risk districts’ to reduce the number of people living in flood risk areas.
Floating Cities
Having floating communities would help ensure they are not submerged by rising sea levels but their maintenance and upkeep would likely be high. In addition, these solutions would not work on all coasts, but would require a harbour or protected body of water and mild temperatures. Should a hurricane roll through, we’re not sure these communities would survive.
These climate evictions are surely something we will be seeing more of in the near and distant future. Do we feel prepared to deal with its reality? Or will we be caught by its wave?